Wade Baldwin IV underwhelmed in his rookie season, so year two is vital
Baldwin IV was a first-round pick for the Memphis Grizzlies in the 2016 NBA Draft, but struggled to show promise over his rookie year
The Memphis Grizzlies selected Baldwin with the no. 17 overall pick in the 2016 NBA Draft. Their franchise is set at point guard with Mike Conley running the team, but obviously depth is important as teams build their way into contention. Baldwin was a knock down shooter for two years at Vanderbilt, has defensive versatility with his massive wingspan and was projected by many to be a solid pro down the line.
Baldwin had a rough rookie season, however. He appeared in 33 games for the Grizzlies averaging just 12.3 minutes per contest. Easing into an NBA role does not make a season “rough”, however his prowess for hitting 3s did not translate (3-for-22 with Memphis) and his propensity to turn the ball over (23.49 turnover rate) was disconcerting as well. Again, this is a 20-year old rookie so bumps in the road are to be expected.
Baldwin spent the majority of his season with the Grizzlies’ G League affiliate, the Iowa Energy, so he could get more reps, learn the offense and play against quality competition. Success in the NBA’s minor league does not always translate, but time and time again we have seen young players (Clint Capela, Andrew Harrison and Skal Labissiere to name a few) be sent to the G League to hone their skills and then turn around and provide substance on the court for their NBA team.
Five or six years ago NBA assignees would come to the league and simply dominate, but the quality of players — and play overall — has increased exponentially. Now it’s important a player develops traits he might lack and working on those against in-game competition which cannot be replicated in an NBA practice.
Due to his minimal time with the Grizzlies, all of these clips and stats are from his time with the Iowa Energy. He played 33 games with Iowa averaging just over 28 minutes per contest. The Energy finished with the worst record in the G League last year at 12–38.
Passing and Vision
Coming out of the college ranks Baldwin was mostly pegged as a 3-and-D style point guard. He’s not going to dazzle you with a quick handle, he struggled to turn the corner on quicker defenders and his passing abilities weren’t top notch. While he showed flashes of brilliance with Iowa, his decision making was lacking at times which led to far too many unnecessary turnovers.
Baldwin finished the season averaging 5.3 assists per game and a 30.5 assist rate. Those numbers sound pretty good until you see his turnover rate was 20.4 and his assist-to-turnover ratio was 1.68. Most of the top point guards in the G League last year hovered anywhere from 10–12 on their turnover rate, so his 20+ figure is rather telling by comparison.
The following play is an example of Baldwin doing everything exactly right.
While there is nothing spectacular about this play, it’s an important glimpse into what Baldwin can do. Many players — especially rookies — would have forced up a contested shot in the lane here. Note the time on the clock as the first half is coming to an end. Baldwin uses a nice strong dribble to penetrate the lane, which caused Gary Payton II to sag in for help, leaving Terry Whisnant wide open for 3. Baldwin finds him with a perfectly placed pass right into his shooting pocket and the they finish the half strong.
On the following play Baldwin shows off an array of skills. He faces up Manny Harris, gives him a nice behind the back to crossover dribble rendering him off balance, then uses the screen to create a better angle to find Cartier Martin at the rim.
This is a much more complex read for Baldwin. If he keeps his head down, he never sees the open Martin. If he tries to make the pass from the first position, the big in the paint could have easily stolen or deflected it. This shows his patience and decision making ability and lets coaches know he has those abilities, now the vital part is turning reads like this into commonplace they can rely on.
Playing out of the pick-and-roll is pivotal for NBA point guards, so the Energy put Baldwin in those situations a lot this season to get him comfortable.
Here Baldwin uses a nice bounce pass to Matt Costello for an open dunk. When he initially comes off the screen he could have taken a bad 2-point jump shot — which he did far too often this year — or tried to force up a lob which would have been deflected by the big who stepped up to double. Instead he gave the defender a fake, then dropped down a beautifully placed bounce pass for the finish.
The lob to Deyonta Davis had a nice ending, but there are issues here as well. Initially, he does not wait long enough for Davis to set a quality screen which could have easily ruined the whole play. Instead of having multiple options, Baldwin’s only real option here was the pass he ended up making for the lob. Patience is a virtue, so they say, and it’s an underrated trait for point guards to carry, because minor tweaks really can prove to be the difference between being on an NBA roster and sitting at home watching what could have been.
Overall Shooting
The crux of Baldwin’s struggles this year fall squarely on his inability to hit 3s at the rate he was able to in college. During his two seasons at Vanderbilt he shot 84-of-199 (42.2 percent) from deep and many projections saw that as a translatable skill for Baldwin. Where this gets lost in translation is his ability to hit those shots off the dribble instead of off the catch. Obviously the college style of play is night and day when compared to NBA, and point guards are going to have the ball in their hands a lot more often in the NBA’s free flowing offenses.
Baldwin’s other bugaboo is shooting far too many 2-point jump shots. That’s a weird trend to watch because he wasn’t proficient from mid-range in college either (35.9 percent as a sophomore) and the Grizzlies point guards don’t shoot a ton of 2s, so it’s not as if the organization needed him shooting those shots. As you will see in the following clips, Baldwin uses his athleticism much more on his 2-point jump shots where he gets supreme lift, which allows him to get these shots off against taller defenders.
His 3-point motion is less fluid, slower and is more of a set shot, so it’s more difficult for him to get it off if he’s not open. The latter is a problem for a 6-foot-4, non-explosive guard. He has to be able to hit 3s to be effective in the NBA.
Let’s unpack this play. First, Baldwin patiently waits for his screener to peel off Quincy Ford, but Ford wisely goes under the screen causing the switch. This was a problem for Baldwin all season as defenders did not respect his 3-pointer, so they simply nullified a screen by going under instead of chasing over the top. Regardless, Baldwin gets the switch with a forward (J.J. O’Brien) trying to stay in front. Baldwin gives him a nice right-to-left crossover which frees him initially, allows him to get to his spot and pull up for a made 12-footer.
Still, this shot is contested by O’Brien and though it goes in, shots like these contributed to Baldwin’s inefficient mid-range game this year as he made 43-of-133 (32.3 percent) from that area.
Now, sometimes mid-range shots are quality looks and this is one of those times. Baldwin uses the screen to get Ray McCallum on his hip, gains the advantage he needs and pulls up for a nice shot. He’s a little off balance falling forward, but this is a good decision in this instance. The Grizzlies aren’t the Houston Rockets, so mid-range shots aren’t taboo and this is a solid shot.
Baldwin’s inability to hit the 3 consistently — especially off the dribble — allowed defenders to sag off of him thus nullifying his ability to get around them as well.
Baldwin makes the 3, but look how far back the defender drops even with just the threat of a screen. He’s five feet away from Baldwin just daring him to take that shot, which is clearly a strategy for the team coming into this game. That’s due to Baldwin shooting just 31.1 percent (23-of-74) from distance this year as opposed to the 42+ he shot in college. If he’s hitting 42 percent of his 3s, there’s no way defenders are dropping off of him, so the rest of his game is really dependent on making outside shots consistently.
C.J. Williams willingly gives up this shot by immediately falling under this screen. Baldwin dealt with this style of defense all season long which only contributed to his struggles from outside. It’s broken record time, but Baldwin simply has to improve his outside shooting off the dribble before next season or he will continuously see guys back off him and dare him to shoot.
As a sophomore at Vanderbilt 72.5 percent of his were assisted. He made just 40 3-pointers during that season, so only 11 were off the dribble in some fashion. As a rookie with Iowa only 56.5 percent of his 3s were assisted, so he actually made more (12) off the dribble but his efficiency plummeted.
Attacking the Rim
The one area Baldwin really excelled during his rookie season in the G League was in finishing at the rim. Though the pendulum shifted to more 2-point jumpers for Baldwin this year as opposed to 3s, that didn’t sway him from attacking the rim and finishing among the trees.
In his last college season 38.5 percent of his field goal attempts were taken at the rim and he finished those at a 50.4 percent clip (60-of-119), per Hoop-Math. Last season with Iowa 42.2 percent of his field goal attempts were taken at the rim and his finishing improved to 58.4 percent (87-of-149). Obviously this is a great sign and is very encouraging moving forward.
Both of these plays show Baldwin’s ability to turn the corner and attack the rim out of the PNR if his main defender goes over the screen. Each time the defender was either caught by the screen or attempted to go over it, which gives Baldwin all the room he needed to attack the help defender. This goes back to the importance of him developing a consistent 3-pointer, because the threat of that shot will hinder opponents from going under screens, which will ultimately open up the lane and give way to penetration which can lead to shots for himself or open teammates.
While scouring through video for Baldwin it was easy to notice he really favors his left hand at the rim. In both the half court and in transition, he has no qualms over attacking the left side of the rim, using his lengthy wingspan to extend and finish over defenders. Now, there aren’t an abundance of shot-blockers in the G League as most of them are snatched up by NBA clubs, or overseas options, but Baldwin’s willingness to attack the rim — and finish at an improved clip — is definitely a plus and is the one offensive aspect he can be proud of this season.
The Memphis Grizzlies will enter the 2017–18 season with three point guards on their roster and at this point Baldwin is very clearly no. 3 on that list. Superstar Mike Conley is at the helm and Andrew Harrison has all but cemented himself as the backup for now. Harrison was a second round pick in the 2015 NBA Draft who spent his entire rookie season as a draft rights player with the Iowa Energy. He used that season to really improve his floor game and show off his chops on the defensive end. While Baldwin didn’t see the same type of improvement over the course of his time in the G League, it still has to be encouraging for him to see good play rewarded.
The Grizzlies are clearly invested in Baldwin’s future as a past first round pick, but he needs to show vast improvement over this offseason. Baldwin has to prove he can hit 3s off the dribble, abstain from taking so many contested mid-range 2s and really improve his decision making in terms of passing and vision. Most coaches don’t like wasted possessions so Baldwin’s 20.4 turnover rate will not be tolerated next season and if he cannot show improvement, he could spend a large chunk of time with their new NBA G League affiliate in Mississippi. For comparison, Conley had a turnover rate last year of just 8.9 and Harrison — a rookie like Baldwin — had a respectable 11.7 turnover rate.
Things have got to improve, but all is not lost with Baldwin. His defensive versatility is still a huge plus as he’s shown the ability to guard both 1s and 2s at the NBA level. His lateral quickness allows him to shuffle his feet and stay in front of most guys and his athleticism and 6-foot-11 wingspan gives him a distinct advantage on that end of the court. If he can continue to finish at a high level around the rim and right the ship on his outside jump shot, he’s can turn into the quality role player they hoped for when they drafted him.
